Now that the dust has settled, what is the real probability of finding the car behind the door?

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# Now that the dust has settled, what is the real probability of finding the car behind the door?

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Now that the dust has settled, what is the real probability of finding the car behind the door?

Please stop

Found the one who think it's 66%

Nice bait OP to bad my my IQ is 140.

Kys gay boi

50%

50/50 either you get it or you don't

33/66 either you get it or you don't

33% for getting?

Which is better one door or two? Swapping effectivly gives you two doors. The game show host opens a door and you open a door. This is functionally the same as you opening two doors.

So if you swap twice, the chance is 100%, because you have effectively 3 doors

What nonsense are you on about, if you swap twice you are back to where you started.

lmfao you morons will never stop will you

Suppose you have picked 1 from n doors. The game show host has (m/n) chance of giving you the option to switch, where m is the number of unopened doors, but if you switch doors one time then you must open that door without another chance to switch. Prior to offering you another chance to switch, the host will open another goat door. Should you not get the (m/n) chance, then you must open the door you currently have.

The host opens the doors one a time, what door is the optimal time to switch?

There’s never any reason to switch. Opening the doors in sequence instead of all at once is more suspenseful but it doesn’t change anything.

Let’s say in this example you looked at the three closed doors and picked number 2. This selection had a 33% chance of being correct. Then they open the door and rule out number 3. Now you know there is a 50% chance of it being number 2, or number 1. This DOES NOT mean that you “should” switch your guess from 2 to 1, because nothing about the physical scenario has changed, just what you know about it. Of course, you could switch to 1 without any downside if you feel like it, because the choice between 1 and 2 is a 50/50 guess.

2/3 if you know what you're doing

less if you don't

0.5. either you do or you don't

50%, you either find it or you don't

I think DA may actually be making society dumber. I don't care if 90% of you are baiting. Someone will believe you. You are creating a society that's one part people acting like idiots for kicks and another part people acting like idiots because they're genuine idiots, and the distinction is negligible when it comes to results. This is what happens when authenticity and good faith are scorned.

Math and statistics is all about thought experiments and playing around with numbers

The chance is always 33%

Depends who you ask.

>host comes out beforehand, tells the audience he knows where the car is, and says there's a goat behind door 3, which he'll reveal if the contestant doesn't choose it (otherwise he'll reveal the other goat).

>Contestant chooses door 2

What is the probability the car is behind door 2?

For the contestant it's 1/3

For the audience it's 1/2

For the host it's 0 (he knows the car is behind door 1)

So if we have 1/3 for the contestant, 2/3 for the audience, and 0 for the host, the average chance of getting the door is ((1/3)+(2/3)+0)/3 = 1/3

From the contestants perspective, he always has a 1/3 probability.

From the audience's perspective 2/3 of the time he has a 1/2 probability, 1/3 of the time he has a 0 probability.

From the host's perspective, 1/3 of the time he has a 1 probability, 2/3 of the time he has a 0 probability.

After switching:

From the contestants perspective, he always has a 2/3 probability.

From the audience's perspective 2/3 of the time he has a 1/2 probability, 1/3 of the time he has a 1 probability.

From the host's perspective, 1/3 of the time he has a 0 probability, 2/3 of the time he has a 1 probability.

>Now that the dust has settled, what is the real probability of finding the car behind the door?

Depends on how you ask.

>Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

1/2 if you stick with you initial choice. 1/2 if you switch.

>Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has to have a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

1/3 if you stick with your initial choice. 2/3 if you switch.

How do those 3 extra words change the whole thing?

That's 2 extra words.

Compare it with being shown a coin you are told could either be a double-headed or a fair coin. If you're allowed to see the coin but it has its heads up, it's more likely to be double-headed. If you're allowed to see the coin but it has to have its heads up, it's equal odds of being either the double-headed or the fair coin.

100%, god guides my actions

I understand your dense skull doesn't let you absorb anything in your smooth brain, but constantly reposting this won't let you do that either. Only killing yourself will provide you that effect. homosexual.

I hope you have the same attitude towards the 40 climate change and vax spam threads on this board

I do, this board needs to be actively cleansed of moronation.

50/50 just like everything else in the universe. It either happens or it doesn't.

2/3 for a non-moron

Imagine there were 1 million dollars or whatever

>Imagine there were 1 million dollars or whatever

Doesn't really address the underlying logic. Just makes the right answer "feel" more right, even though if the underlying logic changed, the right answer would feel wrong.